Attributing forced displacement as a strong trigger in climate change impact, Tuhina Banerjee avers that such migration will mount pressure on resources in urban areas and there will come a time when the capacity of countries and cities to accommodate climate migrants (refugees) would get exhausted. India is the fourth worst hit country in this dubious list.
A large part of forced displacement or migration is the fallout of climate change impact. This was often less talked about earlier. However, it is set to take centre stage at climate change discussions in the next few years as more and more people move within their country or beyond the borders due to extreme weather events.
The migration will put more pressure on resources in urban areas and there will come a time when the capacity of countries and cities to accommodate climate migrants (refugees) would get exhausted.
By 2050, climate change could force 216 million people across six world regions to move within their countries, the World Bank estimates. Sudden onset of weather events – like cyclones, floods, forest fires, draughts and hurricanes – will continue to trigger the displacement. However, what will exacerbate the situation are gradual environmental changes like desertification, attrition of biodiversity, declining crop productivity, air pollution and sea-level rise. Many South Asian cities – including Mumbai and Bangkok – are already losing land to sea and inching towards the risk of being submerged.
Over the next 30 years, 143 million people are likely to be uprooted by rising seas, drought, searing temperatures and other climate catastrophes, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report published this year. In 2021 alone, extreme weather events led to the displacement of 23.7 million people, another report revealed.
By 2020, new internal displacements took place across 42 countries due to conflict and violence and 144 countries because of natural disasters, a report pointed out.
There are almost 20.4 million officially designated refugees under the protection of the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR). But there is an additional group of 21.5 million people who flee their homes as a result of sudden onset weather hazards every year. They are yet to be recognised as ‘environmental migrants’. Climate migrants are not accorded refugee status under the 1951 Refugee Convention, which provides legal protection only to people fleeing persecution due to their race, religion, nationality, political opinion or particular social group. No country in the world offers asylum to migrants displaced by a weather-related event. This is despite the number of climate refugees being three times higher than that of conflict refugees.
At COP 21 in Paris in 2015, the term ‘climate migrants’ was acknowledged in the preamble of the agreement, giving the issue some impetus. In the following COP summits, the issue of human mobility and climate change and its dynamics were discussed. But these discussions didn’t make much headway.
How it will hit India
A report, titled ‘State of India’s Environment’, published by Down To Earth in June last year, revealed that India is the fourth worst-hit country when it comes to climate change-induced migration. In 2020, 14 million people in India were estimated to have migrated as a consequence of extreme weather events.
Coastal states are witnessing surge in floods and cyclones caused by the impacts of climate change while interior regions are seeing slower effects such as droughts.
Extreme weather events in India are on the rise and this is triggering migration. It is mostly the poor, including the marginal farmers, who bear the brunt of severe weather events like sea levels, heatwaves and cyclones.
And these are getting more frequent and fiercer. This is challenging the resilience of people. The damage sometimes is irrevocable.
The frequency of heatwaves will be up to four times higher, cyclone intensity will increase and sea level will rise by 30 cm (12 inches) if action is not taken, revealed a climate change assessment report, published in 2020. Seasonal migration is growing not just because of loss of livelihood, but also owing to climate changes. And it is fast becoming permanent. This trend is disconcerting.
According to a report by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, between 2008 and 2019, 3.6 million people were estimated to have been displaced annually due to cyclones, floods, and storms within the country. Rising sea levels pose a threat to 36 million people living in India’s coastal regions. Farmers from coastal Odisha and West Bengal, for instance, are migrating as agricultural land turns infertile due to sea-level rise and salination, while fishing communities are struggling to survive due to frequent cyclones and storms. In the north, water scarcity and erratic rainfall is forcing communities from the Himalayan region to move to the plains. Annual flooding of the Brahmaputra in Assam and Bihar is causing significant loss to lives and livelihoods.
In addition to internal displacement, India needs to think about the climate refugees from neighbouring countries as well. Cyclones and floods in Bangladesh, deforestation and desertification in the Himalayan region, and rising sea levels are increasingly threatening neighbouring nations. Cyclone Amphan in 2020 killed over 128 people and left millions homeless and impoverished across India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. According to the UNHRC, as of 2011, India had about 2,04,600 refugees, asylum seekers, and ‘others of concern’ due to various factors from Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.
Over 62 million South Asian people may have to migrate from their homes due to slow onset climate disasters such as sea-level rise, water stress, crop yield reductions, ecosystem loss and drought by 2050, according to a new report by Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA) and Action Aid International.
Some climate hot spots will experience displacement due to rising temperatures, eroding rivers and rising seas like the Sundarbans or the Mahanadi delta.
What needs to be done
Strong adaptation and mitigation policies are needed to reduce the impact of climate changes and build resilience. These policies have to take into account the new climate migrants, who are vulnerable.
It is imperative that a climate refugees’ policy is chalked out. India must recognise climate refugees as a vulnerable group, and grant them climate refugee status.
A climate-resilient infrastructure keeping the local issues in mind is need of the hour. Such infrastructure should give livelihoods to the dislodged people. Cross-border migration can be effectively managed if proper protection and resettlement plans are put in place.
A separate climate refugee fund must be created, with public and private contributions. Migration is not a problem in itself, if it’s managed well.
The writer is a freelancer who specialises in lifestyle and wellness issues.