Kharif crops are sown at the beginning of the first rainsand harvested at the end of monsoon season in
In mid- April, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gave a forecast of a ‘normal and fairly well-distributed monsoon rains’ for most parts of the country in the months from June till September. And, the department revised its ‘rainfall normal’ for the four-month monsoon season from 88 cm to 87 cm.
This was IMD’s first Long Range Forecast (LFR) that read that the rainfall this year will be normal or above normal in most parts of the country, except the North-East, Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. The officials also said that the onset of the southwest monsoon, which accounts for about 75 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall, over Kerala remains the same as 1 June.
India’s agrarian economy is hugely dependent on the monsoon. However, this has changed over the years with the modernisation of agriculture. India’s agriculture being primarily rain-fed, the southwest monsoons are extremely important for a good harvest of the kharif crop.
About 75 per cent of the annual rainfall that India receives – occurs during the monsoon months of June till September. Of these, July and August remain the wettest months of the year – accounting for 70 per cent of the season’s total rainfall. And, June and September account for 15 per cent each of the rainfall amount.
Kharif crops need abundant water
Also known as the monsoon crops or autumn crops, kharif crops comprise plants cultivated during the Indian subcontinent’s monsoon season. These include rice, maize, jowar, millet, cotton, etc., which require good rainfall for a good harvest.
In India, the season generally starts in June and ends in October. Kharif crops are usually sown at the beginning of the first rains during the advancement of the south-west monsoon season and they are harvested at the end of monsoon season (October to November).
The kharif crops are sown in the months depending on the region starting from May onwards. In Maharashtra, for example, that lies on the west coast of India, the kharif crops are sown in May, June and July – mostly with the beginnings of the first monsoon rains. Kharif crops are dependent on the quantity of rainwater and the timing as well.
Overall, about 78 per cent of India’s gross cropped area is supported by the monsoon rains. Other than agriculture, certain other key economic sectors also are dependent on monsoons and they include transport, aviation, power, etc.
The monsoon forecasts
Every year, in the months preceding the monsoon months, people especially those whose livelihoods are dependent on agriculture or related activities, directly or indirectly, look out for the IMD forecasts to know how good or bad the rains will be that year.
This year was the fourth consecutive year when the IMD predicted ‘normal rainfall’. The seasonal rainfall is considered normal when it is 96-104 per cent of the LPA i.e the average of the last 50 years.
Till 2021, the average of the period between 1961 and 2011 was taken as the LPA. This year, i.e. in 2022, as part of the routine revision that is done every ten years, the LPA baseline has been changed to the period from 1971 till 2020.
As a result, the ‘rainfall normal’ has changed from 88 cm to 87 cm. This change translates as follows – During the period from 1971 till 2020, India received an average rainfall of 87 cm every year during the four-month monsoon season between June and September.
Also, the all-India annual rainfall, which includes rainfall received in the entire year, and not just during the monsoon months, has decreased from 117 cm to 116 cm. The practice to verify the seasonal rainfall once every ten years is an international practice.
‘The decrease in the seasonal rainfall is due to the natural multi-decadal epochal variability of wet and dry epochs of India’s rainfall. From the rainfall data obtained from 4,132 rain gauges across the country for the 1971-2020 period, it has been observed that the seasonal rainfall has reduced from 88 cm to 87 cm,’ as per the IMD forecast report.
Reducing dependence on monsoons
The government has taken several initiatives to modernise agriculture to meet the country’s food demands and to reduce dependence on agriculture. Although, even today, Indian agriculture is primarily dependent on monsoon-fed water supply, it is now on its way to eliminate such needs.
Role of agriculture in the country’s economic growth is crucial. With changing environments and new challenges, the role of agriculture too needs to be relooked and revised. Today, the agriculture sector is facing some of the greatest challenges that include nutrition and food security, climate change and sustainable use of renewable and non-renewable resources.
The latest budget declared by the government has several features to boost modernisation of agriculture. In February 2022, the Prime Minister said that agricultural loans for farmers have been increased by 2.5 times in the last seven years and that the latest union budget will give a big boost to ‘modernise agriculture
and promote natural farming with a special focus on agri-waste management.’ The aim of the government is to increase the income of the farmers, connect the farmers in a reasonable and sustainable way to the markets and to reduce the farming costs. He has time and again called out to the corporate sector, tech sector and the financial sector to come up with initiatives and ideas to help modernise agriculture.
Climate change is real
The effect of climate change on agriculture is immense and it’s only going to get worse in the future. For that very reason, it’s important to reduce the dependence of agriculture on seasonal factors such as monsoons for water requirement.
The impact of climate change on Indian agriculture was studied under National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). Rain-fed rice yields in India are projected to reduce marginally (<2.5 per cent) in 2050 and 2080 and irrigated rice yields by seven per cent in 2050 and ten per cent
in 2080 scenarios.
Because of climate change, there will be a significant rise in overall mean temperatures and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall events and that has already happened in the last three decades.
As a result of climate change, the fluctuating seasons and other variables have caused and will further impact the production of major crops in India, like in the rest of the world. Climate change has serious implications on agriculture in India because of its impact on soils, crops, livestock, water content, mean temperatures, etc. A change in the atmospheric carbon dioxide has an effect on crops with C3 photosynthetic pathway that promotes the plant’s growth and productivity.
An increase in temperature can affect the photosynthesis process and change the productivity of the plant and other processes. Climate change also impacts other variables such as soil erosion, energy availability, change in seasonal droughts and floods, change in organic matter of the soil, etc. These factors have a huge impact on agriculture and in the years to come, climate change mitigation will be a major part of agricultural reforms.